The Prediction Arrived Before The Tournament
The 2026 FIFA World Cup does not begin until June 11.
The final will not be played until July 19 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.
But according to Goldman Sachs, the winner has already been chosen.
In a research note published on May 29, economists led by Jan Hatzius projected that Spain will win the biggest sporting event on Earth. Using a model built from Elo ratings, attacking talent, recent momentum, mentality, geography, and nearly 20,000 mandatory international matches played since 1978, Goldman gives Spain a 26% chance of lifting the trophy.
France sits second at 19%. Argentina, the defending champions, are third at 14%. Brazil follows at 8%. England rounds out the top five at 5%.
Goldman’s projected final sees Spain defeating Argentina in New York on July 19.
How Wall Street Tries To Predict Football
The model is built around Elo ratings, a ranking system originally created for competitive chess.
Think about that for a moment. Goldman Sachs is predicting the most chaotic sport on earth using a system invented for a game where nothing is left to chance. In chess, every move is calculated. In football, a goalkeeper slips, a referee raises a card, a striker misses an open goal, and the entire model collapses.
Over time, Elo ratings have been adapted for football and are now widely used by analysts and bookmakers. Goldman combines them with team strength, attacking quality, recent performances, tournament history, and geographic factors. The result is a probability model designed to estimate each team’s chances of surviving every stage of the tournament.
It sounds impressive. And it is. But there is a problem.
The Track Record Is Not Great
Goldman Sachs has been making World Cup predictions for years. The results have not been kind.
Before the 2014 World Cup, Goldman predicted Brazil would beat Argentina in the final. Instead, Brazil were destroyed 7-1 by Germany on home soil, in what became known across football as the Mineirazo. One of the most humiliating defeats in the history of the sport. Played in front of their own fans. Goldman did not see it coming.
Before the 2018 World Cup, Goldman ran one million tournament simulations and again predicted Brazil would win. Brazil did not reach the final. France beat Croatia to lift the trophy. The model failed to predict either finalist.
After the tournament, Bloomberg published a blunt verdict: “Goldman Sachs’ Model Got It All Wrong.”
No major investment bank has successfully predicted consecutive World Cup winners using these models. Yet every four years, the forecasts return. And every four years, the world pays attention.
Why This World Cup Is Different
There is another challenge facing the model that no algorithm can easily account for.
The 2026 World Cup is unlike any tournament that came before it. For the first time in history, FIFA is expanding the competition from 32 teams to 48. That means more matches, more knockout rounds, more travel, and significantly more opportunities for favorites to be eliminated before anyone expects. The historical data Goldman used comes almost entirely from tournaments that no longer exist in the same format. The model is trying to predict an event football has never seen before.
There is also the host nation question. The United States, Mexico, and Canada are collectively home to more than 500 million people and will have the loudest crowds of anyone in this tournament. Goldman’s model and the bookmakers agree: their chances of winning are essentially zero. The US sits at roughly 1% implied probability. Mexico and Canada even lower. Half a billion people cheering for teams that Wall Street has already written off.
Why Spain Is Still A Logical Choice
Even critics of the model agree on one thing. Spain have a strong case.
They arrive as reigning European champions after winning Euro 2024. They are ranked second in the FIFA world rankings. Bookmakers across the world also have them as the favorite.
Their squad includes Lamine Yamal, 18 years old and already one of the most extraordinary young footballers the sport has ever produced. He won Euro 2024 at 16. He was Ballon d’Or runner-up in 2025. He will celebrate his 19th birthday on July 13, six days before the final Goldman says he will help Spain win.
Their midfield is anchored by Rodri and Martin Zubimendi, giving them one of the most technically gifted engine rooms in the tournament. The only serious concern is defense. Spain conceded three goals during qualification, including a surprise 1-0 defeat to Ecuador.
The Bigger Question
The most interesting part of this story is not Spain.
It is our relationship with predictions.
Every World Cup reminds the world that football cannot be reduced to a formula. A red card. An injury in the wrong moment. A penalty shootout on the wrong night. A goalkeeper who has the game of his life. One detail Goldman’s model cannot measure and the whole projection falls apart.
History suggests football rarely makes it that easy. The bank that predicted Brazil twice is now predicting Spain. June 11 will tell us whether the algorithm finally got it right, or whether football reminded Wall Street, once again, who is really in charge.
By Shizza Farooqui
SOURCES
Reuters, Goldman Sachs Research Note (Jan Hatzius, May 29 2026), Bloomberg, FIFA, CBS Sports, Fox Sports, Sportsbook Review, historical World Cup data 1978 to 2022
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