The Iran war was a global shock. The recovery is turning out to be just as global.
The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,022.95 on Wednesday. The Nasdaq hit 24,016.02. Both all-time highs. But Wall Street was not alone. Japan’s Nikkei surged 2.5%. South Korea’s KOSPI gained 3.7%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 jumped 3.7% on ceasefire news. London, Frankfurt and Paris all closed higher. From Asia to Europe to America, every major market is staging the same recovery at the same time.
The trigger is the same everywhere. Optimism that a second round of US-Iran talks in Pakistan this week will end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and bring oil back down from above $90.
Seven weeks ago, these same markets were collapsing in unison as oil spiked past $100. The rebound has been faster than anything seen since the post-Covid recovery in April 2020.
The warning signs are still there. The IMF just cut global growth to 3.1%. The ceasefire expires next week. But for now, the whole world is making the same bet. And the whole world is watching Islamabad.
Sources: CNN · CNBC · Al Jazeera · Euronews · NBC News · Bloomberg
