The second round of US-Iran talks is expected in Islamabad this weekend, with the clock running hard on a ceasefire that expires April 22. Trump has told reporters that victory is coming very shortly and that Tehran is now willing to do things it flatly refused two months ago. That is a big claim. This weekend Islamabad must back it up.
The first round in Islamabad collapsed without a deal. The nuclear question broke it. Iran insists enrichment is a sovereign right. The US is demanding full dismantlement of major facilities. Neither side has publicly moved from that position.
In the meantime, the pressure is building from every direction. The US blockade has turned back 13 ships. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has warned Iran the US is “locked and loaded” for renewed combat if no deal is reached. The Lebanon ceasefire, brokered just this week, expires the same day as the Iran truce. Trump wants to end April with two deals. He needs Islamabad to deliver.
If talks succeed the Strait reopens, oil falls and the global economy begins to recover. If they fail the war resumes and everything gets worse very fast. There is no middle ground left.
Sources: CNN · Al Jazeera · NBC News · CBS News · Bloomberg
