Gaza’s Population Has Fallen Nearly 10 Percent Since the War Began, Rights Group Says
Maryam Tariq
Gaza’s population has declined by an estimated 9.5 percent since October 2023, according to Ramy Abdu, chairman of the Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor. That works out to roughly 224,000 people, a figure Abdu says reflects the scale of human loss in the territory, even as he stressed that numbers alone cannot capture what individual families have experienced.
What Is Driving the Population Decline
According to Abdu, the estimated decline stems from the combined effect of deaths, displacement outside Gaza, and other demographic shifts caused by the prolonged conflict. Falling birth rates have also played a role, as healthcare access, malnutrition and psychological trauma have made pregnancy and childbirth increasingly dangerous across the territory. The current war began on October 7, 2023, after Hamas launched an attack on Israel, prompting a large scale Israeli military campaign in Gaza that has continued in various phases since.
How the Numbers Have Changed Over Time
This is not the first time officials have tracked Gaza’s shrinking population. In a report covering the end of 2024, the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics found the population had fallen by 6 percent, or about 160,000 people, bringing the total to roughly 2.1 million. That report recorded 45,484 deaths, including 17,581 children and 12,048 women, along with 11,000 people still listed as missing and over 108,000 injured. Less than a year later, the newer 9.5 percent figure from Euro-Med Monitor shows the decline has continued to accelerate, adding tens of thousands more to the total population loss.
The Scale of Deaths and Displacement
Gaza’s Health Ministry has continued reporting rising death tolls throughout the conflict, with figures cited by rights organizations placing total deaths above 45,000, alongside thousands still unaccounted for. Displacement has affected nearly the entire remaining population, with hundreds of thousands of Palestinians forced into makeshift tents and shelters, often repeatedly, as fighting has shifted across different parts of the territory. Children make up close to half of Gaza’s remaining population, a demographic detail that highlights how deeply the war has reshaped daily life for the youngest residents.
Why Verifying These Numbers Is Difficult
Officials and demographers caution that comprehensive, verified population data remains difficult to produce in the middle of an active conflict. Israel’s government has previously disputed Palestinian casualty and population figures, with its foreign ministry describing earlier statistics agency data as fabricated and inflated. Independent human rights organizations, including several operating under the Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor umbrella, along with United Nations bodies, have continued citing the scale of death and destruction in Gaza as evidence supporting genocide allegations against Israel, a characterization Israel firmly rejects, maintaining it is acting within international law and defending itself against Hamas. The International Court of Justice ruled in January 2024 that Israel must take measures to prevent acts of genocide in Gaza, and the broader legal case remains ongoing.
What a Nearly 10 Percent Decline Actually Means
Demographers note that a population decline of this scale, if eventually confirmed through official post war assessments, would represent one of the most significant demographic changes in Gaza’s modern history. Such a shift carries consequences well beyond the current death toll, affecting reconstruction planning, the availability of public services, healthcare capacity, and the long term social fabric of communities that have already lost immediate family members, homes, and access to basic infrastructure.
Why This Story Continues to Evolve
Humanitarian organizations continue to warn that the human cost of the war extends far beyond casualty figures alone, touching nearly every aspect of civilian life in Gaza, from food and water access to healthcare and shelter. As population estimates continue to be updated, from 6 percent in late 2024 to 9.5 percent in the more recent assessment, the trend line itself has become one of the clearest indicators of how the conflict continues to reshape Gaza’s population, even during periods when active combat has slowed.
Sources:
Gaza’s Population Reportedly Declines by 9.5% Since 2023 Amid Ongoing Genocide — Newsweek: https://www.newsweek.com
Gaza population falls 6 percent since start of war, statistics agency says — Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/1/gaza-population-falls-6-percent-since-start-of-war-statistics-agency-says
Gaza’s population is falling, while Israel’s growth is slowing — CNN via AOL: https://www.aol.com/israel-population-growth-slows-residents-154437407.html
Population of Gaza decreases by 6% amid Israeli genocide, Report — IRNA: https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2024/12/mil-241231-irna01.htm
Gaza Population Falls 6 Percent Since Start of War, Statistics Agency Says — International Center for Transitional Justice: https://www.ictj.org/latest-news/gaza-population-falls-6-percent-start-war-statistics-agency-says
